10 Financial Lessons We Can Learn from Warren Buffett
Over the years, there are few business icons that have offered up as much knowledge as Warren Buffett. From his legendary notes to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders to his famous quotes and idioms, the 84 year old has never been afraid to offer up his investment advice to the masses. Today’s ageless infographic covers some of the most poignant lessons from the Oracle of Omaha’s career. Warren Buffett is also well known for putting his money where his mouth is. In today’s uncharted market territory of zero rates, the real question is what Mr. Buffett is doing these days? As Jim Rickards explains in a recent interview with Keith McCullough, Buffett is positioning himself in a way that readers of Nassim Taleb would understand: a robust portfolio that works in either a deflationary or inflationary environment that gives plenty of optionality. Rickards points to his two most recent acquisitions: Burlington Northern Santa Fe and Suncor. These are both hard assets that can excel in an inflationary environment: transportation, railway, oil, natural gas, mining rights. Meanwhile, Berkshire also has the most cash it has ever had at $55 billion, which provides a hedge for deflation and volatility, and allows him the optionality to pounce on upcoming opportunities.
on Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem. Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period. To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions. Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments. Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices. On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in. For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.
